recursion - 如何使用pykalman filter_update 进行在线回归

Question

我想使用 kf.filter_update() 对传入的价格数据流递归地使用卡尔曼回归，但我无法使其工作。这是解决问题的示例代码:

数据集(即流):

DateTime             CAT      DOG
2015-01-02 09:01:00, 1471.24, 9868.76
2015-01-02 09:02:00, 1471.75, 9877.75
2015-01-02 09:03:00, 1471.81, 9867.70
2015-01-02 09:04:00, 1471.59, 9849.03
2015-01-02 09:05:00, 1471.45, 9840.15
2015-01-02 09:06:00, 1471.16, 9852.71
2015-01-02 09:07:00, 1471.30, 9860.24
2015-01-02 09:08:00, 1471.39, 9862.94

数据被读入 Pandas 数据帧，以下代码通过迭代 df 来模拟流:

df = pd.read_csv('data.txt')
df.dropna(inplace=True)

history = {}
history["spread"] = []
history["state_means"] = []
history["state_covs"] = []

for idx, row in df.iterrows():
    if idx == 0: # Initialize the Kalman filter
        delta = 1e-9
        trans_cov = delta / (1 - delta) * np.eye(2)
        obs_mat = np.vstack([df.iloc[0].CAT, np.ones(df.iloc[0].CAT.shape)]).T[:, np.newaxis]
        kf = KalmanFilter(n_dim_obs=1, n_dim_state=2,
                          initial_state_mean=np.zeros(2),
                          initial_state_covariance=np.ones((2, 2)),
                          transition_matrices=np.eye(2),
                          observation_matrices=obs_mat,
                          observation_covariance=1.0,
                          transition_covariance=trans_cov)

        state_means, state_covs = kf.filter(np.asarray(df.iloc[0].DOG))
        history["state_means"], history["state_covs"] = state_means, state_covs
        slope=state_means[:, 0]
        print "SLOPE", slope

    else:
        state_means, state_covs = kf.filter_update(history["state_means"][-1], history["state_covs"][-1], observation = np.asarray(df.iloc[idx].DOG))
        history["state_means"].append(state_means)
        history["state_covs"].append(state_covs)
        slope=state_means[:, 0]
        print "SLOPE", slope

卡尔曼滤波器正确初始化，我得到第一个回归系数，但后续更新抛出异常:

Traceback (most recent call last):
SLOPE [ 6.70319125]
  File "C:/Users/.../KalmanUpdate_example.py", line 50, in <module>
KalmanOnline(df)
  File "C:/Users/.../KalmanUpdate_example.py", line 43, in KalmanOnline
state_means, state_covs = kf.filter_update(history["state_means"][-1], history["state_covs"][-1], observation = np.asarray(df.iloc[idx].DOG))
  File "C:\Python27\Lib\site-packages\pykalman\standard.py", line 1253, in filter_update
2, "observation_matrix"
  File "C:\Python27\Lib\site-packages\pykalman\standard.py", line 38, in _arg_or_default
+ '  You must specify it manually.') % (name,)
ValueError: observation_matrix is not constant for all time.  You must specify it manually.

Process finished with exit code 1

直观上似乎很清楚观察矩阵是必需的(它在初始步骤中提供，但不在更新步骤中提供)，但我不知道如何正确设置它。任何反馈将不胜感激。

Answer 1

Pykalman 允许您以两种方式声明观察矩阵:

• [n_timesteps, n_dim_obs, n_dim_obs] - 一次用于整个估计

• [n_dim_obs, n_dim_obs] - 分别用于每个估计步骤

在您的代码中，您使用了第一个选项(这就是“observation_matrix 并非始终保持不变”的原因)。但是随后您在循环中使用了 filter_update，Pykalman 无法理解在每次迭代中使用什么作为观察矩阵。

我会将观察矩阵声明为 2 元素数组:

from pykalman import KalmanFilter
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

df = pd.read_csv('data.txt')
df.dropna(inplace=True)

n = df.shape[0]
n_dim_state = 2;

history_state_means = np.zeros((n, n_dim_state))
history_state_covs = np.zeros((n, n_dim_state, n_dim_state))

for idx, row in df.iterrows():
    if idx == 0: # Initialize the Kalman filter
        delta = 1e-9
        trans_cov = delta / (1 - delta) * np.eye(2)

        obs_mat = [df.iloc[0].CAT, 1]

        kf = KalmanFilter(n_dim_obs=1, n_dim_state=2,
                          initial_state_mean=np.zeros(2),
                          initial_state_covariance=np.ones((2, 2)),
                          transition_matrices=np.eye(2),
                          observation_matrices=obs_mat,
                          observation_covariance=1.0,
                          transition_covariance=trans_cov)

        history_state_means[0], history_state_covs[0] = kf.filter(np.asarray(df.iloc[0].DOG))
        slope=history_state_means[0, 0]
        print "SLOPE", slope

    else:
        obs_mat = np.asarray([[df.iloc[idx].CAT, 1]])

        history_state_means[idx], history_state_covs[idx] = kf.filter_update(history_state_means[idx-1], 
                                                            history_state_covs[idx-1], 
                                                            observation = df.iloc[idx].DOG, 
                                                            observation_matrix=obs_mat)
        slope=history_state_means[idx, 0]
        print "SLOPE", slope

plt.figure(1)
plt.plot(history_state_means[:, 0], label="Slope")
plt.grid()
plt.show()

结果如下:

SLOPE 6.70322464199
SLOPE 6.70512037269
SLOPE 6.70337808649
SLOPE 6.69956406785
SLOPE 6.6961767953
SLOPE 6.69558438828
SLOPE 6.69581682668
SLOPE 6.69617670459

Pykalman 的文档不是很好，官方页面上有错误。这就是为什么我建议一步使用离线估计来测试结果。在这种情况下，必须像您在代码中那样声明观察矩阵。

from pykalman import KalmanFilter
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

df = pd.read_csv('data.txt')
df.dropna(inplace=True)

delta = 1e-9
trans_cov = delta / (1 - delta) * np.eye(2)
obs_mat = np.vstack([df.iloc[:].CAT, np.ones(df.iloc[:].CAT.shape)]).T[:, np.newaxis]

kf = KalmanFilter(n_dim_obs=1, n_dim_state=2,
                  initial_state_mean=np.zeros(2),
                  initial_state_covariance=np.ones((2, 2)),
                  transition_matrices=np.eye(2),
                  observation_matrices=obs_mat,
                  observation_covariance=1.0,
                  transition_covariance=trans_cov)

state_means, state_covs = kf.filter(df.iloc[:].DOG)

print "SLOPE", state_means[:, 0]

plt.figure(1)
plt.plot(state_means[:, 0], label="Slope")
plt.grid()
plt.show()

结果是一样的。