Python3 脚本未产生预期结果

Question

我制作了一个 Python 脚本来测试 Monty Hall Problem我的问题是代码似乎输出了 30% 的赢和 60% 的输，而本应相反。

from random import randint
wins = 0
losses = 0
for i in range(1000):
    correctDoor = randint(1, 3)
    guessDoor = randint(1, 3)
    while True:
        newGuessDoor = randint(1, 3)
        if newGuessDoor != guessDoor:
            break
        elif newGuessDoor == guessDoor:
            pass
    if newGuessDoor == correctDoor:
        wins = wins+1
    else:
        losses = losses+1
print('Wins = ' + str(wins) + '\nLosses = ' + str(losses) + '')

我觉得我遗漏了一些明显的东西。任何帮助将不胜感激。

Answer 1

这实际上并没有正确实现 Monty Hall 问题。当最初的猜测不正确时，另一扇不正确的门在被提供切换之前会被显示出来，因此这是一个确定性的选择。当初始猜测正确时，将随机显示其他不正确的门之一。

在您的实现中，您在最初猜测后没有得到任何额外信息——您只是完全随机选择第二扇门，它与您的第一扇门不同。

以下是如何实现正确方法的示例:

In [168]: from random import randint, choice
     ...: wins = 0
     ...: losses = 0
     ...: for i in range(1000):
     ...:     correctDoor = randint(1, 3)
     ...:     guessDoor = randint(1, 3)
     ...:     if guessDoor != correctDoor:
     ...:         newGuessDoor = correctDoor
     ...:     else:
     ...:         newGuessDoor = choice([i for i in [1,2,3] if i != guessDoor])
     ...:     if newGuessDoor == correctDoor:
     ...:         wins = wins+1
     ...:     else:
     ...:         losses = losses+1
     ...: print('Wins = ' + str(wins) + '\nLosses = ' + str(losses) + '')
     ...:
Wins = 653
Losses = 347