Matlab:神经网络时间序列预测？

Question

背景:我正在尝试使用 MATLAB 的神经网络工具箱来预测数据的 future 值。我从 GUI 运行它，但我还在下面包含了输出代码。

问题:我的预测值落后于实际值 2 个时间段，而且我不知道如何实际看到“t+1”(预测)值。

代码:

% Solve an Autoregression Time-Series Problem with a NAR Neural Network
% Script generated by NTSTOOL
% Created Tue Mar 05 22:09:39 EST 2013
%
% This script assumes this variable is defined:
%
%   close_data - feedback time series.

targetSeries = tonndata(close_data_short,false,false);

% Create a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network
feedbackDelays = 1:3;
hiddenLayerSize = 10;
net = narnet(feedbackDelays,hiddenLayerSize);

% Choose Feedback Pre/Post-Processing Functions
% Settings for feedback input are automatically applied to feedback output
% For a list of all processing functions type: help nnprocess
net.inputs{1}.processFcns = {'removeconstantrows','mapminmax'};

% Prepare the Data for Training and Simulation
% The function PREPARETS prepares timeseries data for a particular network,
% shifting time by the minimum amount to fill input states and layer states.
% Using PREPARETS allows you to keep your original time series data unchanged, while
% easily customizing it for networks with differing numbers of delays, with
% open loop or closed loop feedback modes.
[inputs,inputStates,layerStates,targets] = preparets(net,{},{},targetSeries);

% Setup Division of Data for Training, Validation, Testing
% For a list of all data division functions type: help nndivide
net.divideFcn = 'dividerand';  % Divide data randomly
net.divideMode = 'time';  % Divide up every value
net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100;
net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100;
net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100;

% Choose a Training Function
% For a list of all training functions type: help nntrain
net.trainFcn = 'trainlm';  % Levenberg-Marquardt

% Choose a Performance Function
% For a list of all performance functions type: help nnperformance
net.performFcn = 'mse';  % Mean squared error

% Choose Plot Functions
% For a list of all plot functions type: help nnplot
net.plotFcns = {'plotperform','plottrainstate','plotresponse', ...
  'ploterrcorr', 'plotinerrcorr'};


% Train the Network
[net,tr] = train(net,inputs,targets,inputStates,layerStates);

% Test the Network
outputs = net(inputs,inputStates,layerStates);
errors = gsubtract(targets,outputs);
performance = perform(net,targets,outputs)

% Recalculate Training, Validation and Test Performance
trainTargets = gmultiply(targets,tr.trainMask);
valTargets = gmultiply(targets,tr.valMask);
testTargets = gmultiply(targets,tr.testMask);
trainPerformance = perform(net,trainTargets,outputs)
valPerformance = perform(net,valTargets,outputs)
testPerformance = perform(net,testTargets,outputs)

% View the Network
view(net)

% Plots
% Uncomment these lines to enable various plots.
%figure, plotperform(tr)
%figure, plottrainstate(tr)
%figure, plotresponse(targets,outputs)
%figure, ploterrcorr(errors)
%figure, plotinerrcorr(inputs,errors)

% Closed Loop Network
% Use this network to do multi-step prediction.
% The function CLOSELOOP replaces the feedback input with a direct
% connection from the outout layer.
netc = closeloop(net);
[xc,xic,aic,tc] = preparets(netc,{},{},targetSeries);
yc = netc(xc,xic,aic);
perfc = perform(net,tc,yc)

% Early Prediction Network
% For some applications it helps to get the prediction a timestep early.
% The original network returns predicted y(t+1) at the same time it is given y(t+1).
% For some applications such as decision making, it would help to have predicted
% y(t+1) once y(t) is available, but before the actual y(t+1) occurs.
% The network can be made to return its output a timestep early by removing one delay
% so that its minimal tap delay is now 0 instead of 1.  The new network returns the
% same outputs as the original network, but outputs are shifted left one timestep.
nets = removedelay(net);
[xs,xis,ais,ts] = preparets(nets,{},{},targetSeries);
ys = nets(xs,xis,ais);
closedLoopPerformance = perform(net,tc,yc)

建议的解决方案:我相信答案就在代码“早期预测网络”的最后一部分。我只是不确定如何删除“一次延迟”。

附加问题:是否有一个函数可以从中输出以便我可以反复使用它？或者我是否只需要在获得下一个时间段的数据后继续重新训练？

Answer 1

为了确保这个问题不会在答案已经存在的情况下保持开放状态，我将发布似乎可以解决该问题的评论:

感谢@DanielTheRocketMan

I believe that you should work in steps:

1. see if the data is stationary
2. if not, deal with it (for instance, differentiate the data)
3. test the most possible model, for instance, ar model
4. try nonlinear model, for instance, nar
5. go to a nn model.